State of Trump 2.5 | Weekly Primer | Feb. 23, 2026
The Weekly Primer is a ‘pop-up’ newsletter that highlights the latest developments from the Trump White House with a view into the deeper agenda underway. This Special Edition marks the first State of the Union address by President Donald J. Trump. It includes an additional section: “The State of Trump 2.5.”
The State of Trump 2.5
As President Trump delivers his first State of the Union address of his second term, a lot has changed since his speech to a joint session of Congress on March 7, 2025. Approval ratings cannot be counted on for accuracy, but one year ago his net approval was effectively 0; today, it is -17, according to The Economist.
What happened in the intervening period? The last several presidential terms have seen similar declines, whether for Presidents Bush, Obama, Biden, or Trump. The political system is rife with polarization and incumbent fatigue. But something more has occurred.
…continued below following this week’s edition.
What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?
The White House barely lost a step after an adverse Supreme Court ruling on tariffs ahead of the State of the Union address.
President Trump shows no sign of backing down on any part of his vast agenda at home and abroad, despite what appear to be multiple headwinds, and he may even adopt a more aggressive posture domestically to shore up support with the MAGA base.
Coming up this week
President Trump Delivers State of the Union | In his first State of the Union address of his administration, the shadow of continuing turmoil in the MAGA base may overwhelm the moment.
Iran Negotiations Go into Overtime | While the White House seeks to achieve its objectives, Iran shows no signs of capitulating, heightening the risk of conflict, though talks continue.
Government Shutdown Tightens at DHS | The partial shutdown has tightened funds at DHS, which almost led to the suspension of TSA Pre-Check at airports.
Clintons Set for Epstein Testimony | Later this week, both Bill and Hillary Clinton are scheduled to testify in closed-door hearings on the Epstein Files.
Anniversary of Russian Invasion this Week | The fourth anniversary of the Russian-Ukraine conflict will take place on Tuesday as the conflict continues without end.
You may have missed
Man Shot at Mar-a-Lago | Secret Service shot dead an armed assailant who had trespassed on the property.
Chaos in Mexico after Killing | The leader of a major cartel was killed in a joint US-Mexico operation, which resulted in sporadic violence throughout the country.
Board of Peace Concludes Meeting | The inaugural meeting of the ambiguous body concluded in Washington, D.C., with a number of world leaders in attendance.
Supreme Court Almost Strikes Down Tariffs | The highest court ruled against the administration’s approach on tariffs but left the window open for them to be reapplied under other provisions.
Governors Meet at White House | The nation’s governors met with President Trump and the First Lady for their annual dinner.
Readings & Viewings
Snapshots from around the media from the past week.
TCN | Tucker Carlson Interviews Mike Huckabee
New York Times | “Arab Leaders Condemn Remarks by U.S. Ambassador to Israel.”
X | Kash Patel Joins Locker Room
“Special interests—in this case, American corporations— promoted a bipartisan agenda that lasted for decades. The same could be said across a number of industries today, from agriculture to pharmaceuticals to weapons. As the Trump administration ventures into policy debates, relying on corporate executives and specialized constituencies in the MAGA coalition for input, it will need to carefully weigh what is America First and what is ‘special interests’ first.
Critics of the 47th president assert that America First is a cloak for these special interests. Ultimately, this litmus test will be put to voters in the midterm elections of 2026..”
- p. 49 “Principles and Policies” | Trump 2.5: A Primer (2025)
State of Trump 2.5 continued
President Trump won in 2024 with a wide coalition, not only demographically but also politically. He won the critical support of political independents. While he has maintained his core group of supporters, he has lost many newer members of the second-term coalition, effectively what constituted the Trump 2.5 base (versus Trump 1.0).
Largely speaking, the White House has delivered on its agenda. It is the electorate that has diverged, driven by what was interpreted as Trump 2.5. There was a sense that Trump 2.5 represented ‘no wars’ when, in fact, it represented peace through the demonstration of strength (i.e., the use of force). The Epstein Files were not formally part of the Trump 2024 platform. And supporting Israel and combating antisemitism were always listed.
Similarly, on affordability, while this remains a continuing concern, the administration always intended to address it by tackling inflation, reducing energy prices, and focusing on growth. It has largely done that. Of course, in some areas, there is still a lack of resolution. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, which enters its fourth anniversary, is a glaring one. Also, the tariff strategy has been chaotic, unsettling supply chains without boosting manufacturing noticeably to date.
For many in his own base, Trump 2.5 is seen as cozying up to the elite, or what the president’s opponents call the ‘Epstein class’. In both 2016 and 2024, Donald Trump railed against Wall Street, depraved Democrats, the excesses of Silicon Valley, and the military-industrial complex. He himself was debanked by Wall Street in 2021, deplatformed by many in the tech sector in the same year, and targeted by various intelligence investigations.
Thus, there is confusion in his own base. This has led prominent MAGA voices to dissent and even oppose President Trump, such as Marjorie Taylor Greene. But the online influencer war masks a wider rift. That is an economic divergence between the middle class and the economic elite. While there is growth, inflation has been reduced, and investment is coming in, the reality is that disproportionate gains are accruing at the top.
The idea of Trump 2.5 being a disruptive force is questioned not just by the digital square but also by Main Street. “Is he really representing me? Is he the everyman billionaire or just another billionaire?” The president can indulge in various foreign policy interests, as long as his coalition sees him as ‘their’ man in Washington.
As President Trump makes his State of the Union address, he will attempt to reconnect with that perception. The reality of how things are unfolding, however, may betray any message he tries to give.