The State of Trump 2.5

As President Trump delivers his first State of the Union address of his second term, a lot has changed since his speech to a joint session of Congress on March 7, 2025. Approval ratings cannot be counted on for accuracy, but one year ago his net approval was effectively 0; today, it is -17, according to The Economist.

What happened in the intervening period? The last several presidential terms have seen similar declines, whether for Presidents Bush, Obama, Biden, or Trump. The political system is rife with polarization and incumbent fatigue. But something more has occurred.

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One year into the presidency of Donald J. Trump, it is clear that Trump 2.5 was no misnomer. “2.5” signifies that the second term is not only different than the first, but something more – not 2.0 but “2.5” in terms of cohesiveness and effectiveness in advancing its agenda. To date, there have been no departures from the Cabinet (although natural turnover may now occur). The fast pace of policy announcements and executive orders has been matched by actions in real time, at home and abroad.

Despite this, many observers, supporters, and opponents continue to underestimate the White House. In 2026, those who do so will be unprepared for what comes next. This year will see even more intense activity. It is worth taking a step back to understand what occurred over the last 12 months.

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