What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

The third attempt on the president’s life should have a galvanizing effect at a critical time, although whether it can re-consolidate his fractured base remains to be seen.

Given the speed of the news cycle, other issues will quickly rise to the forefront, but look for the White House to convene its core supporters for a rallying moment.

Trump 2.5

Coming up this week

• Decision on Iran War Looms | As negotiations falter, the escalation path appears back on the table, with more American military assets expected to move to the Middle East this week.

• Royal Visit to the White House | King Charles and Queen Camilla will have a full itinerary for their visit to Washington, D.C., early this week, including a state dinner, despite the recent security incident.

• MAHA Outreach Picking Up | With the midterms on the horizon, the White House and Congress are looking for ways to reach out to the MAHA movement.

• White House to Push Ballroom Plans | In light of the shooting, an effort is already underway to fast-track construction of the new Ballroom for future events.

• Fed Nomination Inches Along | A key GOP senator revealed he will now back Kevin Warsh to chair the Federal Reserve after Jerome Powell’s term expires.

You may have missed

• Assassination Attempt at Press Dinner | A suspect was detained after storming the entrance to the main hall where the president was presiding over the WHCA dinner.

• Labor Secretary Resigns | Lori Chavez-DeRemer became the third cabinet member to be forced out as her deputy, Kevin Sonderling, takes over the department for now.

• President Hosts Lebanon Talks | President Trump hosted the negotiators from Lebanon and Israel in the Oval Office as part of the push to separate the peace talks from the Iran War.

• Soldier Charged in Betting Case | A special forces officer is accused of placing bets on the January capture of Venezuelan leader Maduro.

• Virginia Passes Redistricting in Vote | A referendum passed in the state to change the structure of congressional districts that could have wide-ranging political repercussions in favor of the Democratic Party.

Readings & Viewings

Snapshots from around the media from the past week.

• 60 Minutes | Interview with President Trump After Shooting

• New York Post | Manifesto of Cole Ryan

• GEOPOLITICO | The Pakistan Gambit

“On July 13, at a political rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, a lone gunman took aim at Donald Trump while he was on stage...In the immediate aftermath, Trump stood up defiantly and yelled to the crowd, “Fight, fight, fight!”

Immediately after that assassination attempt, there was a change in the mood of latent supporters who had stood on the sidelines. That same day, Elon Musk endorsed Donald Trump for president. Mark Zuckerberg praised Trump’s response to the attempt, calling him a “badass.” This also led to a conversation between Robert F. Kennedy Jr., or RFK Jr., who was by then an independent candidate in the presidential race, and Trump. Emboldened by these events, Trump selected then- Senator JD Vance as his running mate over other names, doubling down on the MAGA movement within the Republican Party.”

- p. 42 “The Man, the Myth, and MAGA” | Trump 2.5: A Primer (2025)

What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

With the stock market at record highs and the president facing limited pushback within the GOP on foreign policy, the White House may be more emboldened.

Expect the administration to take a more assertive posture at home and abroad over the next month, though this could also lead to dealmaking.

Trump 2.5

Coming up this week

• Effort to Extend Iran Ceasefire Underway | The gap between Iran and the United States appears wide, as Pakistan attempts to negotiate a last-ditch ceasefire extension this week.

• Cuba Due to Respond to US | Following an American meeting in Cuba with the grandson of Raúl Castro, Havana is considering its formal response this week.

• Planning for Royal Visit Continues | | King Charles and Queen Camilla are due for a State Dinner at the White House next week, which is expected to be a signature event for the administration.

• GOP Prepares for Midterms | The political operation is being consolidated over the next couple of weeks to determine an effective platform for political rallies this summer.

• President Due to Attend WHCA Dinner | It is expected that President Trump will attend the annual bash, underscoring the continued investment in establishment media despite criticism.

You may have missed

• Rogan Prods Trump into Action | The famed podcaster encouraged the president to allow psychedelic use in treating past trauma.

• Pope Deescalates Tensions | Pope Leo sought to defuse tensions with the American leader after what appeared to be growing mutual recriminations.

• US Enforces Blockade | US forces seized an Iranian ship to enforce the blockade being enforced in the Strait of Hormuz.

• Rubio Hosts Peace Talks on Lebanon | The Secretary of State facilitated an initial round of negotiations between the envoys of Israel and Lebanon in Washington.

• FISA Vote Stalls | Republican dissent stalled a late-night vote to pass the surveillance statute, prolonging debate and political horse-trading.

Readings & Viewings

Snapshots from around the media from the past week.

• New York Times | “Syrian Billionaires Invoked the Trump Name.”

• X | Palantir Manifesto

• GEOPOLITICO | “The Inevitable but Avoidable War”

“During the 2011 White House Correspondents’ Association (WHCA) dinner, then- President Barack Obama directly attacked Trump, mocking his political aspirations. It never occurred to the Democratic Party, the mainstream media, or establishment institutions to take Trump seriously as a political rival.”

- p. 1 “Up Front” | Trump 2.5: A Primer (2025)

What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

The Iran War is once again wildly uncertain, as the president announced a new blockade after talks in Pakistan failed.

As the midterms approach, Vice President Va…

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What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

With the Middle East in turmoil and Trump’s coalition at a breaking point, the White House enters a pivotal week of the Iran War with all options on the table.

The president’s firing of a second cabinet official shows that he is still keeping an eye on the domestic agenda while the war unfolds. Similarly, the vice president has been shoring up donors and messaging ahead of the midterms.

Trump 2.5

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What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

The White House appears to be fully on message with its neoconservative wing on foreign policy, as the 2024 winning coalition continues to fracture.

Stalwarts of…

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What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

President Trump is in a face-off with Iran’s new leadership, as countries in the region and global markets are caught in the middle.

The entire White House agenda…

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What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

The Iran war continues to escalate, with no end in sight.

The White House has been unable to establish a clear narrative on the way forward, leading to growing un…

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What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

As the Iran War takes center stage, Noem becomes the first cabinet member to depart.

While Trump seeks to project strength in the Middle East, his already fragile coalition is fracturing amid the conflict.

Trump 2.5

Coming up this week

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What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

All eyes are on Iran as the American intervention risks sinking the Trump administration into a quagmire.

After a State of the Union address focused on domestic issues that reunited a divided base, the new Middle East conflict appears to be eroding support for the president every day it continues.

Trump 2.5

Coming up this week

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The State of Trump 2.5

As President Trump delivers his first State of the Union address of his second term, a lot has changed since his speech to a joint session of Congress on March 7, 2025. Approval ratings cannot be counted on for accuracy, but one year ago his net approval was effectively 0; today, it is -17, according to The Economist.

What happened in the intervening period? The last several presidential terms have seen similar declines, whether for Presidents Bush, Obama, Biden, or Trump. The political system is rife with polarization and incumbent fatigue. But something more has occurred.

…continued below following this week’s edition.

What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

The White House barely lost a step after an adverse Supreme Court ruling on tariffs ahead of the State of the Union address.

President Trump shows no sign of backing down on any part of his vast agenda at home and abroad, despite what appear to be multiple headwinds, and he may even adopt a more aggressive posture domestically to shore up support with the MAGA base.

Trump 2.5

Coming up this week

• President Trump Delivers State of the Union | In his first State of the Union address of his administration, the shadow of continuing turmoil in the MAGA base may overwhelm the moment.

• Iran Negotiations Go into Overtime | While the White House seeks to achieve its objectives, Iran shows no signs of capitulating, heightening the risk of conflict, though talks continue.

• Government Shutdown Tightens at DHS | The partial shutdown has tightened funds at DHS, which almost led to the suspension of TSA Pre-Check at airports.

• Clintons Set for Epstein Testimony | Later this week, both Bill and Hillary Clinton are scheduled to testify in closed-door hearings on the Epstein Files.

• Anniversary of Russian Invasion this Week | The fourth anniversary of the Russian-Ukraine conflict will take place on Tuesday as the conflict continues without end.

You may have missed

• Man Shot at Mar-a-Lago | Secret Service shot dead an armed assailant who had trespassed on the property.

• Chaos in Mexico after Killing | The leader of a major cartel was killed in a joint US-Mexico operation, which resulted in sporadic violence throughout the country.

• Board of Peace Concludes Meeting | The inaugural meeting of the ambiguous body concluded in Washington, D.C., with a number of world leaders in attendance.

• Supreme Court Almost Strikes Down Tariffs | The highest court ruled against the administration’s approach on tariffs but left the window open for them to be reapplied under other provisions.

• Governors Meet at White House | The nation’s governors met with President Trump and the First Lady for their annual dinner.

Readings & Viewings

Snapshots from around the media from the past week.

• TCN | Tucker Carlson Interviews Mike Huckabee

• New York Times | “Arab Leaders Condemn Remarks by U.S. Ambassador to Israel.”

• X | Kash Patel Joins Locker Room

“Special interests—in this case, American corporations— promoted a bipartisan agenda that lasted for decades. The same could be said across a number of industries today, from agriculture to pharmaceuticals to weapons. As the Trump administration ventures into policy debates, relying on corporate executives and specialized constituencies in the MAGA coalition for input, it will need to carefully weigh what is America First and what is ‘special interests’ first.

Critics of the 47th president assert that America First is a cloak for these special interests. Ultimately, this litmus test will be put to voters in the midterm elections of 2026..”

- p. 49 “Principles and Policies” | Trump 2.5: A Primer (2025)

State of Trump 2.5 continued

President Trump won in 2024 with a wide coalition, not only demographically but also politically. He won the critical support of political independents. While he has maintained his core group of supporters, he has lost many newer members of the second-term coalition, effectively what constituted the Trump 2.5 base (versus Trump 1.0).

Largely speaking, the White House has delivered on its agenda. It is the electorate that has diverged, driven by what was interpreted as Trump 2.5. There was a sense that Trump 2.5 represented ‘no wars’ when, in fact, it represented peace through the demonstration of strength (i.e., the use of force). The Epstein Files were not formally part of the Trump 2024 platform. And supporting Israel and combating antisemitism were always listed.

Similarly, on affordability, while this remains a continuing concern, the administration always intended to address it by tackling inflation, reducing energy prices, and focusing on growth. It has largely done that. Of course, in some areas, there is still a lack of resolution. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, which enters its fourth anniversary, is a glaring one. Also, the tariff strategy has been chaotic, unsettling supply chains without boosting manufacturing noticeably to date.

For many in his own base, Trump 2.5 is seen as cozying up to the elite, or what the president’s opponents call the ‘Epstein class’. In both 2016 and 2024, Donald Trump railed against Wall Street, depraved Democrats, the excesses of Silicon Valley, and the military-industrial complex. He himself was debanked by Wall Street in 2021, deplatformed by many in the tech sector in the same year, and targeted by various intelligence investigations.

Thus, there is confusion in his own base. This has led prominent MAGA voices to dissent and even oppose President Trump, such as Marjorie Taylor Greene. But the online influencer war masks a wider rift. That is an economic divergence between the middle class and the economic elite. While there is growth, inflation has been reduced, and investment is coming in, the reality is that disproportionate gains are accruing at the top.

The idea of Trump 2.5 being a disruptive force is questioned not just by the digital square but also by Main Street. “Is he really representing me? Is he the everyman billionaire or just another billionaire?” The president can indulge in various foreign policy interests, as long as his coalition sees him as ‘their’ man in Washington.

As President Trump makes his State of the Union address, he will attempt to reconnect with that perception. The reality of how things are unfolding, however, may betray any message he tries to give.

What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

The White House believes that the ‘facts’ are on its side, particularly on the economy and crime, despite flagging approval ratings.

While the Epstein Files continue to dominate headlines, the administration is consolidating its political messaging on higher GDP, reduced inflation, and record-low crime.

Trump 2.5

Coming up this week

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What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

The administration continues to falter on messaging with its own base, further hindering its winning coalition in 2024 heading into the midterms.

It remains to be seen whether the White House is willing to pivot, as it appears to be doubling down on its foreign policy focus and limited disclosure regarding the Epstein Files.

Trump 2.5

Coming up this week

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What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

The Epstein Files have cast a long shadow over Trump’s online base, but it is unclear whether they move the political needle.

The White House will double down on what it sees as its core domestic issues: immigration, energy, and economic growth.

Trump 2.5

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What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

The administration is once again on the backfoot at home and abroad following an aggressive start to the month.

The White House’s next moves on Greenland and Minnesota will set the tenor for how it is seen by supporters and opponents alike.

Trump 2.5

Coming up this week

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What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

The president’s base has been re-energized by successive actions and announcements, notably on Venezuela and Minnesota.

This has set a combative tone for the election year, and the expected pace of new policies is likely to accelerate further.

Trump 2.5

Coming up this week

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What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

The trump administration entered 2026 with a geopolitical bang.

January will likely be dizzying on both the domestic and foreign policy fronts, as it appears there is renewed momentum from the White House.

Trump 2.5

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What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

This week is the calm before the political storm that will be 2026.

President Trump makes a strong push on open geopolitical files while regrouping for a big push to kick off a strong January across his agenda.

Trump 2.5

Coming up this week

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What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

It has been a tumultuous fall season for the president, and the release of the Epstein files has only heightened concerns.

It appears that the White House is still progressing steadily across multiple arenas simultaneously and has maintained a unified front within the cabinet. Perhaps in a way, it could still defy expectations.

Trump 2.5

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What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

The last full week before the Christmas break will be defining for President Trump’s momentum into 2026.

The White House continues to try to regain messaging leverage but appears to be losing both the populist base and the traditional GOP establishment.

Trump 2.5

Coming up this week

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