What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

While turmoil in the Middle East continues in the background, the president is immersed in spectacle this week, first at the Knicks game on Monday and then at the UFC match at the White House on the weekend.

Overall, there is a feeling of drift in Washington, within the GOP and broadly across the country, as legislation, large projects, and geopolitical deals stall.

Trump 2.5

Coming up this week

• Trump to Attend Knicks Game | The president is expected to attend Game 3 Monday at Madison Square Garden at the same time as Mayor Mamdani.

• LA Mayoral Race Narrows Without Pratt | The upstart candidate lost steam as mail-in ballots were counted, and it is expected the incumbent mayor will face off against another Democrat.

• President Xi in North Korea | The Chinese president made his first trip to North Korea in 7 years.

• AI Meeting in Washington | After a back-and-forth on an executive order and rising public sentiment against data centers, the White House is expected to convene senior AI company officials for a major meeting.

• UFC Exhibition Goes Live | A purpose-built arena on the White House lawn will be the venue for a major exhibition to celebrate America’s 250^th anniversary.

You may have missed

• Venezuela Leader Makes Trip Abroad | Acting President Delcy Rodriguez traveled to India and Turkey in her first major trip since the coup.

• Senator Lee Lambasts Pentagon | The Utah Senator objected to the classification of Mormonism outside of Christianity in a Department of War document.

• Israel and Iran Trade Blows | Iran and Israel directly engaged in missile attacks in each other’s territory after a dispute over attacks in Lebanon, with the US trying to stay above the fray.

• Pulte Tapped as New DNI | The lead housing official in the administration has been chosen to be the acting head of intelligence in a controversial move across political lines.

• Ukraine Drones Travel Deep into Russia | Several drones hit St Petersburg during the annual economic forum, where President Putin also spoke.

Readings & Viewings

Snapshots from around the media from the past week.

• Meet the Press | President Walks out of Interview

• X | Hunter Biden Goes Wild Online

• Politico | “This World Leader Took on Trump Over Iran — and It’s Paying Off”

“President Trump considers engagement with all [media] a plus in that it brings attention, even with networks that have often slanted coverage against him, although that has not stopped him from suing those same networks.”

- p. 129 “People and Positions” | Trump 2.5: A Primer (2025)

What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

There is a lack of excitement on both sides of the aisle for America’s 250^th anniversary, showing overall fatigue with the Trump administration.

While still pushi…

Read more

What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

As the administration inches towards the summer, it’s slowly advancing elements of its agenda while trying to move the Iran War to the back burner.

There could be…

Read more

What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

As the president returns from China, the Iran War is squarely in the spotlight, although the Kentucky primary on Tuesday will draw attention.

With the milestones …

Read more

What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

Without clear resolution across nearly every foreign policy file that has been opened, notably Iran, the White House will remain rudderless.

As the president head…

Read more

What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

There are six months to the pivotal midterms, and the White House is picking up the pace on all fronts.

Geopolitics continues to be in focus with the Iran War sho…

Read more

What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

The third attempt on the president’s life should have a galvanizing effect at a critical time, although whether it can re-consolidate his fractured base remains …

Read more

What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

With the stock market at record highs and the president facing limited pushback within the GOP on foreign policy, the White House may be more emboldened.

Expect …

Read more

What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

The Iran War is once again wildly uncertain, as the president announced a new blockade after talks in Pakistan failed.

As the midterms approach, Vice President Va…

Read more

What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

With the Middle East in turmoil and Trump’s coalition at a breaking point, the White House enters a pivotal week of the Iran War with all options on the table.

The president’s firing of a second cabinet official shows that he is still keeping an eye on the domestic agenda while the war unfolds. Similarly, the vice president has been shoring up donors and messaging ahead of the midterms.

Trump 2.5

Read more

What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

The White House appears to be fully on message with its neoconservative wing on foreign policy, as the 2024 winning coalition continues to fracture.

Stalwarts of…

Read more

What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

President Trump is in a face-off with Iran’s new leadership, as countries in the region and global markets are caught in the middle.

The entire White House agenda…

Read more

What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

The Iran war continues to escalate, with no end in sight.

The White House has been unable to establish a clear narrative on the way forward, leading to growing un…

Read more

What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

As the Iran War takes center stage, Noem becomes the first cabinet member to depart.

While Trump seeks to project strength in the Middle East, his already fragile coalition is fracturing amid the conflict.

Trump 2.5

Coming up this week

Read more

What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

All eyes are on Iran as the American intervention risks sinking the Trump administration into a quagmire.

After a State of the Union address focused on domestic issues that reunited a divided base, the new Middle East conflict appears to be eroding support for the president every day it continues.

Trump 2.5

Coming up this week

Read more

The State of Trump 2.5

As President Trump delivers his first State of the Union address of his second term, a lot has changed since his speech to a joint session of Congress on March 7, 2025. Approval ratings cannot be counted on for accuracy, but one year ago his net approval was effectively 0; today, it is -17, according to The Economist.

What happened in the intervening period? The last several presidential terms have seen similar declines, whether for Presidents Bush, Obama, Biden, or Trump. The political system is rife with polarization and incumbent fatigue. But something more has occurred.

…continued below following this week’s edition.

What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

The White House barely lost a step after an adverse Supreme Court ruling on tariffs ahead of the State of the Union address.

President Trump shows no sign of backing down on any part of his vast agenda at home and abroad, despite what appear to be multiple headwinds, and he may even adopt a more aggressive posture domestically to shore up support with the MAGA base.

Trump 2.5

Coming up this week

• President Trump Delivers State of the Union | In his first State of the Union address of his administration, the shadow of continuing turmoil in the MAGA base may overwhelm the moment.

• Iran Negotiations Go into Overtime | While the White House seeks to achieve its objectives, Iran shows no signs of capitulating, heightening the risk of conflict, though talks continue.

• Government Shutdown Tightens at DHS | The partial shutdown has tightened funds at DHS, which almost led to the suspension of TSA Pre-Check at airports.

• Clintons Set for Epstein Testimony | Later this week, both Bill and Hillary Clinton are scheduled to testify in closed-door hearings on the Epstein Files.

• Anniversary of Russian Invasion this Week | The fourth anniversary of the Russian-Ukraine conflict will take place on Tuesday as the conflict continues without end.

You may have missed

• Man Shot at Mar-a-Lago | Secret Service shot dead an armed assailant who had trespassed on the property.

• Chaos in Mexico after Killing | The leader of a major cartel was killed in a joint US-Mexico operation, which resulted in sporadic violence throughout the country.

• Board of Peace Concludes Meeting | The inaugural meeting of the ambiguous body concluded in Washington, D.C., with a number of world leaders in attendance.

• Supreme Court Almost Strikes Down Tariffs | The highest court ruled against the administration’s approach on tariffs but left the window open for them to be reapplied under other provisions.

• Governors Meet at White House | The nation’s governors met with President Trump and the First Lady for their annual dinner.

Readings & Viewings

Snapshots from around the media from the past week.

• TCN | Tucker Carlson Interviews Mike Huckabee

• New York Times | “Arab Leaders Condemn Remarks by U.S. Ambassador to Israel.”

• X | Kash Patel Joins Locker Room

“Special interests—in this case, American corporations— promoted a bipartisan agenda that lasted for decades. The same could be said across a number of industries today, from agriculture to pharmaceuticals to weapons. As the Trump administration ventures into policy debates, relying on corporate executives and specialized constituencies in the MAGA coalition for input, it will need to carefully weigh what is America First and what is ‘special interests’ first.

Critics of the 47th president assert that America First is a cloak for these special interests. Ultimately, this litmus test will be put to voters in the midterm elections of 2026..”

- p. 49 “Principles and Policies” | Trump 2.5: A Primer (2025)

State of Trump 2.5 continued

President Trump won in 2024 with a wide coalition, not only demographically but also politically. He won the critical support of political independents. While he has maintained his core group of supporters, he has lost many newer members of the second-term coalition, effectively what constituted the Trump 2.5 base (versus Trump 1.0).

Largely speaking, the White House has delivered on its agenda. It is the electorate that has diverged, driven by what was interpreted as Trump 2.5. There was a sense that Trump 2.5 represented ‘no wars’ when, in fact, it represented peace through the demonstration of strength (i.e., the use of force). The Epstein Files were not formally part of the Trump 2024 platform. And supporting Israel and combating antisemitism were always listed.

Similarly, on affordability, while this remains a continuing concern, the administration always intended to address it by tackling inflation, reducing energy prices, and focusing on growth. It has largely done that. Of course, in some areas, there is still a lack of resolution. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, which enters its fourth anniversary, is a glaring one. Also, the tariff strategy has been chaotic, unsettling supply chains without boosting manufacturing noticeably to date.

For many in his own base, Trump 2.5 is seen as cozying up to the elite, or what the president’s opponents call the ‘Epstein class’. In both 2016 and 2024, Donald Trump railed against Wall Street, depraved Democrats, the excesses of Silicon Valley, and the military-industrial complex. He himself was debanked by Wall Street in 2021, deplatformed by many in the tech sector in the same year, and targeted by various intelligence investigations.

Thus, there is confusion in his own base. This has led prominent MAGA voices to dissent and even oppose President Trump, such as Marjorie Taylor Greene. But the online influencer war masks a wider rift. That is an economic divergence between the middle class and the economic elite. While there is growth, inflation has been reduced, and investment is coming in, the reality is that disproportionate gains are accruing at the top.

The idea of Trump 2.5 being a disruptive force is questioned not just by the digital square but also by Main Street. “Is he really representing me? Is he the everyman billionaire or just another billionaire?” The president can indulge in various foreign policy interests, as long as his coalition sees him as ‘their’ man in Washington.

As President Trump makes his State of the Union address, he will attempt to reconnect with that perception. The reality of how things are unfolding, however, may betray any message he tries to give.

What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

The White House believes that the ‘facts’ are on its side, particularly on the economy and crime, despite flagging approval ratings.

While the Epstein Files continue to dominate headlines, the administration is consolidating its political messaging on higher GDP, reduced inflation, and record-low crime.

Trump 2.5

Coming up this week

Read more

What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

The administration continues to falter on messaging with its own base, further hindering its winning coalition in 2024 heading into the midterms.

It remains to be seen whether the White House is willing to pivot, as it appears to be doubling down on its foreign policy focus and limited disclosure regarding the Epstein Files.

Trump 2.5

Coming up this week

Read more

What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

The Epstein Files have cast a long shadow over Trump’s online base, but it is unclear whether they move the political needle.

The White House will double down on what it sees as its core domestic issues: immigration, energy, and economic growth.

Trump 2.5

Coming up this week

Read more

What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

The administration is once again on the backfoot at home and abroad following an aggressive start to the month.

The White House’s next moves on Greenland and Minnesota will set the tenor for how it is seen by supporters and opponents alike.

Trump 2.5

Coming up this week

Read more