Category: Foreign Policy (Last Updated April 17, 2026)

The policy remains to achieve a unified American security architecture in the region, with Iran on the inside.

The Starting Point

The White House’s Iran policy flows from its overall approach to the Middle East and to adversarial countries around the world. This is covered in Trump 2.5: A Primer across several excerpts.

Excerpt #1: P. 23 | Chapter I: Up Front

“In that conversation [in 1980, Donald Trump], he spoke to America’s “potential” and the idea that the country could go on to regain what it once was so that it “gets the respect of other countries.” He also provided a probing reading of the Iranian hostage crisis and the Iran- Iraq war, shedding light on the peace- through- strength inclination that would echo later in his political career.”

Excerpt #2: p. 59 | Chapter III: “Principles and Policies”

“The peace- through- strength doctrine builds on the Powell doctrine. It seeks to ensure American military supremacy at all times, in all theatres, and for any eventuality. In addition, it is exercised—as in the case of the assassination of Iranian general Qassem Suleimani in 2020—on an ongoing basis. Thus, it must be understood that Trump is not an anti- war president necessarily. If there is a threat against America and an enemy does not back down, Trump will exercise military force. However, the theory is that the threat of force, over time, will be enough to compel American adversaries to sue for peace and make deals.”

Excerpt #3: p. 65 | Chapter III: “Principles and Policies”

Excerpt #4: p. 69 | Chapter IV: “Principles and Policies”

“The objectives in the Middle East are threefold: removing security challenges for the U.S., ensuring American access to energy over rivals, and soliciting domestic investment. The U.S. sees security challenges to Israel as tantamount to challenges to the U.S. itself, and that will not change under Trump. However, that does not mean the president will indulge in all proactive actions that Israel takes, notably against Iran.

As noted, in an ideal scenario Trump intends to reach a sequel to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (the Obama-era nuclear deal with Iran) that would end with the dismantlement of Iranian proxies and the defenestration of Iran’s nuclear program. The administration will maintain an aggressive posture toward non-state militant groups but may acquiesce to engagement with Syria’s political authorities. It will tolerate the presence of autocratic governments that support America’s agenda.”

The Current Read

Overall, the policy itself has not changed, but the speed and force with which it has been carried out have. This has raised questions about internal pressures and the influence of allies in Israel and the Gulf that may have prompted precipitous action. The result is that the initial policy is now part of a geopolitical stalemate, which also gives way to a broader context of global power competition.

The administration now seeks the perception of Iranian capitulation alongside tangible resource gains, whether achieved on the battlefield or at the negotiating table. These gains could come through investment projects or new energy concessions, similar to what transpired in Venezuela, a difficult outcome to acheive. The overall shift will affect the second-order postures of China and Russia vis-à-vis the United States, which in turn may prompt more aggressive moves by the Trump administration.

People shaping the policy*

• General John Daniel “Raizin Caine | Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

• JD Vance | Vice President

• Jared Kushner | Unofficial presidential envoy

• Steve Witkoff | Special Envoy for Peace Missions

• Scott Bessent | Secretary of the Treasury

*Further background for individuals available in Trump 2.5

Notable milestones

• Operation Midnight Hammer (June 22, 2025)

• Operation Epic Fury (February 28, 2026)

• Islamabad Talks (April 11, 2026)

Additional Resources

• GEOPOLITICO | “The Inevitable but Avoidable War”

• CBS Face the Nation | Interview with Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi

• The Twilight War: The Secret History of America’s Thirty-Year Conflict with Iran