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Category: Domestic Policy (Last Updated May 25, 2026)

In the first year of the administration, the government pivoted from establishing a sovereign wealth fund to enabling different parts of the government to take direct equity stakes, with the Development Finance Corporation (DFC) in the lead.

The Starting Point

The initial focus of the White House, as emphasized during the campaign, was exploring the establishment of a sovereign wealth fund. On February 3, 2025, Executive Order 14196 was signed to support that initiative.

Excerpt #1: P. 70 | Chapter III: “Principles and Policies”

“In creating a sovereign wealth fund, the Trump administration will seek to partner with the largest sovereign wealth funds in the Gulf to bring investment into America. There will be a steady stream of private sector engagement, just as in the first term.”

Excerpt #2: p. 72 | Chapter III: “Principles and Policies”

The Current Read

Establishing a sovereign wealth fund and consolidating existing assets has proven to be a tall order that would require complex legislation. Instead of that pursuit, the Trump administration has enabled multiple government agencies and departments to build a portfolio of holdings through a range of instruments, including direct equity ownership.

The Development Finance Corporation, through the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) passed late last year, now has a revolving $5 billion equity account at the US Department of the Treasury. In addition, it is permitted to have up to $200 billion of total holdings, with up to $70 billion in equity. In that sense, DFC is taking on the standing of a sovereign fund. Its remit has also expanded beyond developing markets to include U.S. allies.

The focus of the DFC, as well as the government's overall holdings, is on critical technology sectors and upstream requirements, such as critical minerals. The US Treasury, the Department of Commerce, and the Department of War (DoW) are also active on this front. While the Intel announcement, in which the US government acquired a stake in the company, took prominence, subsequent deals in quantum computing and critical minerals have shown this is a pattern. In these types of agreements, Commerce and the DoW seem to be more active than DFC.

The sprawl of activity and holdings may require consolidation, at which point an SWF may come back into the spotlight. For now, tracking the hydra of holdings requires careful attention.

People shaping the policy*

• Benjamin Black, CEO DFC

• Howard Lutnick, Secretary of Commerce

• Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary

• Steve Feinberg, Deputy Secretary of War

• Jacob Helberg, Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth

*Further background for individuals available in Trump 2.5

Notable milestones

• SWF Executive Order – February 3, 2025

• Intel Stake Acquired – August 22, 2025

• Korea Zinc Deal Announced – December 14, 2025

• NDAA 2026 Passed – December 18, 2025

• Quantum Computing Grants – May 21, 2026

Additional Resources

• Executive Order 14196

• DFC Modernization Act of 2025

• Intel Warrant and Stock Agreement

• Council on Foreign Relations | Washington’s Growing Portfolio: Tracking U.S. Government Investments

What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

As the administration inches towards the summer, it’s slowly advancing elements of its agenda while trying to move the Iran War to the back burner.

There could be a surge of momentum this summer across multiple policies domestically to shore up the base ahead of the midterms.

Trump 2.5

Coming up this week

• Iran Negotiations at Decision Point | A long weekend of social media back-and-forth has brought the delicate negotiations into the spotlight, with supporters and opponents of a deal jockeying for the president’s ear.

• Rubio Holds Court in India | The Secretary of State is on a trip to shore up the alliance with India and to hold a meeting of the ‘Quad’ intended to counterbalance China in Asia.

• President Trump in Memorial Day Commemoration | The president will participate in a series of ceremonies, including at Arlington Cemetery.

• Cornyn Faces Tough Test in Texas | The incumbent senator is likely to lose his race as the president endorses his opponent, Ken Paxton.

• Housing Bill Gaining Bipartisan Support | Legislation on affordable housing championed by Democrats is gaining GOP support.

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• AI Order Postponed | A long-awaited executive order potentially regulating the AI industry has been put on hold after numerous Silicon Valley figures lobbied against it at the last minute.

Readings & Viewings

Snapshots from around the media from the past week.

• New York Times | “How Prediction Markets and Crypto Firms Steamrolled a Watchdog Agency.”

• X | Cheung versus Pompeo

• Meet the Press | Thomas Massie Interview

“The one guiding objective is to ensure American AI dominance. This includes attracting investment to bolster the upstream requirements for modern AI, from computing capabilities to data centers. It also includes attracting global talent while cultivating it in America, which will have tension with the priority of immigration reform. The focus of the Biden administration on AI safety will take a backseat.”

- p. 84 “Principles and Policies” | Trump 2.5: A Primer (2025)

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Note that this is an open preview, and future posts will be available for paid subscribers.

Category: Foreign Policy (Last Updated May 10, 2026)

The administration is pursuing American dominance in the Western Hemisphere and the removal of influence by other major global powers in adversarial states and allies alike.

The Starting Point

At the outset of the administration, it was immediately clear that the focus was on prioritizing not just America-friendly governments but also Trump-friendly leaders. The first-order concern – borders and immigration – was achieved relatively quickly within three months. This opened the door to pursuing the overall objective of hegemony early on in the administration.

Excerpt #1: P. 66 | Chapter III: Principles and Policies

“As the U.S. in the Trump 2.5 era seeks Western hegemonic dominance, it will not accept Chinese influence in Cuba and Venezuela. In Cuba’s case, given its proximity to the U.S. border, there may even be hints at regime change through economic pressure.”

Excerpt #2: p. 67 | Chapter III: “Principles and Policies”

The Current Read

The White House formalized its policy in the Western hemisphere within two key documents: National Security Strategy and the National Defense Strategy.

The approach is characterized as an expanded Monroe doctrine, which has also been reframed in the media as the ‘Donroe’ doctrine. At the core is the reinforcement of a zone of exclusion in the Americas, whereby the United States’ writ is paramount, particularly in confronting Chinese (and at times Russian) influence.

There are other overriding concerns that precipitate American action or intervention:

• Interdiction of the drug trade

• Combating illegal migration

• Achieving geostrategic energy dominance

To achieve these aims, there are ongoing attempts at regime alteration, either through the electoral process or outside it. This played out in Honduras (electorally) and Venezuela (militarily) within the first year, for example. Brazil and Colombia will soon be significant tests for the White House’s approach. In fact, every electoral cycle could be a flashpoint.

It is less clear what role the Shield of the Americas, a new body, will evolve into and if it will transition beyond pageantry into substance. The primary interlocutors for the United States in co-leadership are El Salvador, Argentina, and Chile, and to a lesser degree, Ecuador and other Central American countries. Canada and Mexico, while within the Americas, have a broader policy context for the administration as the only two countries bordering the United States.

Finally, as in all other regions, advancing American prosperity and achieving a trade surplus, including through tariffs, is also the policy du jour in the Americas.

People shaping the policy*

• Marco Rubio, Secretary of State

• Pete Hegseth, Secretary of War

• Scott Bessent, Secretary of the Treasury

• Michael Jensen, Senior Director, National Security Council

• Kirsti Noem, Special Envoy, Shield of the Americas

*Further background for individuals available in Trump 2.5

Notable milestones

• Ecuador Election (runoff) – April 13, 2025

• Chile Election – November 16, 2025

• Honduras Election – November 30, 2025

• Venezuela Intervention – January 3, 2026

• Costa Rica Election – February 1, 2026

• Shield of the Americas Summit – March 7, 2026

• Colombia Election – May 31, 2026

• Peru Election (Runoff) – June 7, 2026

• Brazil Election – October 4, 2026

• Argentina Election – October 24, 2027

Additional Resources

• GEOPOLITICO | Victory in Venezuela

• White House | National Security Strategy (November 2025)

• Bloomberg | How Trump’s Venezuela intervention revived the Monroe Doctrine

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The State of Trump 2.5

As President Trump delivers his first State of the Union address of his second term, a lot has changed since his speech to a joint session of Congress on March 7, 2025. Approval ratings cannot be counted on for accuracy, but one year ago his net approval was effectively 0; today, it is -17, according to The Economist.

What happened in the intervening period? The last several presidential terms have seen similar declines, whether for Presidents Bush, Obama, Biden, or Trump. The political system is rife with polarization and incumbent fatigue. But something more has occurred.

…continued below following this week’s edition.

What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

The White House barely lost a step after an adverse Supreme Court ruling on tariffs ahead of the State of the Union address.

President Trump shows no sign of backing down on any part of his vast agenda at home and abroad, despite what appear to be multiple headwinds, and he may even adopt a more aggressive posture domestically to shore up support with the MAGA base.

Trump 2.5

Coming up this week

• President Trump Delivers State of the Union | In his first State of the Union address of his administration, the shadow of continuing turmoil in the MAGA base may overwhelm the moment.

• Iran Negotiations Go into Overtime | While the White House seeks to achieve its objectives, Iran shows no signs of capitulating, heightening the risk of conflict, though talks continue.

• Government Shutdown Tightens at DHS | The partial shutdown has tightened funds at DHS, which almost led to the suspension of TSA Pre-Check at airports.

• Clintons Set for Epstein Testimony | Later this week, both Bill and Hillary Clinton are scheduled to testify in closed-door hearings on the Epstein Files.

• Anniversary of Russian Invasion this Week | The fourth anniversary of the Russian-Ukraine conflict will take place on Tuesday as the conflict continues without end.

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• Man Shot at Mar-a-Lago | Secret Service shot dead an armed assailant who had trespassed on the property.

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• Board of Peace Concludes Meeting | The inaugural meeting of the ambiguous body concluded in Washington, D.C., with a number of world leaders in attendance.

• Supreme Court Almost Strikes Down Tariffs | The highest court ruled against the administration’s approach on tariffs but left the window open for them to be reapplied under other provisions.

• Governors Meet at White House | The nation’s governors met with President Trump and the First Lady for their annual dinner.

Readings & Viewings

Snapshots from around the media from the past week.

• TCN | Tucker Carlson Interviews Mike Huckabee

• New York Times | “Arab Leaders Condemn Remarks by U.S. Ambassador to Israel.”

• X | Kash Patel Joins Locker Room

“Special interests—in this case, American corporations— promoted a bipartisan agenda that lasted for decades. The same could be said across a number of industries today, from agriculture to pharmaceuticals to weapons. As the Trump administration ventures into policy debates, relying on corporate executives and specialized constituencies in the MAGA coalition for input, it will need to carefully weigh what is America First and what is ‘special interests’ first.

Critics of the 47th president assert that America First is a cloak for these special interests. Ultimately, this litmus test will be put to voters in the midterm elections of 2026..”

- p. 49 “Principles and Policies” | Trump 2.5: A Primer (2025)

State of Trump 2.5 continued

President Trump won in 2024 with a wide coalition, not only demographically but also politically. He won the critical support of political independents. While he has maintained his core group of supporters, he has lost many newer members of the second-term coalition, effectively what constituted the Trump 2.5 base (versus Trump 1.0).

Largely speaking, the White House has delivered on its agenda. It is the electorate that has diverged, driven by what was interpreted as Trump 2.5. There was a sense that Trump 2.5 represented ‘no wars’ when, in fact, it represented peace through the demonstration of strength (i.e., the use of force). The Epstein Files were not formally part of the Trump 2024 platform. And supporting Israel and combating antisemitism were always listed.

Similarly, on affordability, while this remains a continuing concern, the administration always intended to address it by tackling inflation, reducing energy prices, and focusing on growth. It has largely done that. Of course, in some areas, there is still a lack of resolution. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, which enters its fourth anniversary, is a glaring one. Also, the tariff strategy has been chaotic, unsettling supply chains without boosting manufacturing noticeably to date.

For many in his own base, Trump 2.5 is seen as cozying up to the elite, or what the president’s opponents call the ‘Epstein class’. In both 2016 and 2024, Donald Trump railed against Wall Street, depraved Democrats, the excesses of Silicon Valley, and the military-industrial complex. He himself was debanked by Wall Street in 2021, deplatformed by many in the tech sector in the same year, and targeted by various intelligence investigations.

Thus, there is confusion in his own base. This has led prominent MAGA voices to dissent and even oppose President Trump, such as Marjorie Taylor Greene. But the online influencer war masks a wider rift. That is an economic divergence between the middle class and the economic elite. While there is growth, inflation has been reduced, and investment is coming in, the reality is that disproportionate gains are accruing at the top.

The idea of Trump 2.5 being a disruptive force is questioned not just by the digital square but also by Main Street. “Is he really representing me? Is he the everyman billionaire or just another billionaire?” The president can indulge in various foreign policy interests, as long as his coalition sees him as ‘their’ man in Washington.

As President Trump makes his State of the Union address, he will attempt to reconnect with that perception. The reality of how things are unfolding, however, may betray any message he tries to give.

What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

The White House believes that the ‘facts’ are on its side, particularly on the economy and crime, despite flagging approval ratings.

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The administration continues to falter on messaging with its own base, further hindering its winning coalition in 2024 heading into the midterms.

It remains to be seen whether the White House is willing to pivot, as it appears to be doubling down on its foreign policy focus and limited disclosure regarding the Epstein Files.

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