What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

The future of the GOP beyond Trump looks closer at hand as the administration struggles to regain momentum.

Even if deals can be reached with Iran, Canada and China, they have already caused significant damage to the domestic and foreign policy agendas.

Trump 2.5

Coming up this week

• Iran Sanctions Heading into Overdrive | Secretary Bessent announced new measures targeting countries that engage in trade with Iran.

• South Carolina Primaries on Tuesday | All eyes are on the Republican Primary for Senate as the late Lindsey Graham’s sister looks to be his successor.

• Data Centers Challenge Looms Large | Private memos from the Republican Party have laid out that campaigns need to change course in Ohio and elsewhere.

• Preparation Underway for Xi Visit | New tariffs on China could be announced as the two presidents prepare for their September 24 meeting.

• Supreme Court Paves Way for Voting Change | The highest court allowed the administration to begin changes in how mail-in ballots can be delivered, before the case is fully adjudicated.

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• Canada Deal Falls Apart | Despite initial optimism, the Canadian PM announced that he could not accept the deal on the table

• Argentina Cattle Receives Support | The president announced on Truth Social that the U.S. would waive tariffs on beef imports to support lower prices.

• Israel Targets Syria | Airstrikes were conducted on a military base in Syria ostensibly to counter Turkish influence.

• Florida Election Results Surprise | Favored candidate Alexander Vindman lost his Democratic primary for the Senate to a DSA candidate.

• Military Drill with South Korea Canceled | Several reasons were offered for the cancellation of regular military exercises with the U.S. ally.

Readings & Viewings

Snapshots from around the media from the past week.

• White House | VP Vance Remarks in Ohio

• New York Post | “Trump Takes Lap at Freedom 250 Grand Prix.”

• CBS | “Cuban Immigrant Speaks Out”

“With so many personalities in the current White House, Vance may be crowded out by others... he is a critical part of the administration and should not be underestimated or forgotten amidst all the noise.”

- p. 98 “People and Positions” | Trump 2.5: A Primer (2025)

What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

The administration is seeing a transition of key officials, which is likely to accelerate in the coming months.

There is a feeling that Washington is gradually moving on from the president as the epicenter of politics.

Trump 2.5

Coming up this week

• Kushner Leads Middle East Agenda | The president’s son-in-law is back at the forefront, meeting with the leader of Hamas and Israel’s PM this week.

• Iran War Could See Aggressive Turn | Both the United States and Iran have expressed that they will not wait indefinitely for a resolution at the negotiating table.

• Key Administration Officials Depart | White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt and the VP’s National Security Advisor Andy Baker are exiting, as another cabinet official may soon follow.

• Supreme Court to Review Ballroom | The construction plans will be reviewed by the highest court to find a way forward.

• Canada-US Talks at a Critical Point | Both sides are far apart, and a deal must be reached to avoid massive new tariffs.

You may have missed

• President Indicates Thaw with North Korea | Washington has said it would reduce military exercises with South Korea and pursue détente with Pyongyang.

• Navy Under Scrutiny After Leaks | Numerous stories have emerged about deteriorating conditions aboard the USS Lincoln amidst an unprecedented deployment.

• Vaccine Announcement Causes Controversy | The new vaccine schedule announced by the administration last week is raising eyebrows in Washington.

• Ohio Rally Falls Flat | The Patriot Games were held without much national fanfare as the president attended the finale.

• Meta in the Crosshairs | A new multi-state lawsuit against Meta has reached federal court and will likely spark debate in Congress in the fall.

Readings & Viewings

Snapshots from around the media from the past week.

• X | Loomer: “We are kind of doomed”

• YouTube | Rally with Jon Ossoff

• GEOPOLITICO | “Surviving in a World of Hard Power.”

“Jared Kushner— The president’s son- in- law married Ivanka Trump in 2009, and they have three children together. After playing a lead role in Middle East policy during Donald Trump’s first term, he has stepped back to devote his time to growing business interests. Notably, Saudi Arabia has given his fund, Affinity Partners, deep financial backing.”

- p. 95 “People and Positions” | Trump 2.5: A Primer (2025)

What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

A deep malaise has set in for the MAGA base as grassroots Democrats gain momentum in successive primaries as the president continues to back the establishment GOP on the other side.

All signs point to the November midterms as a deep political inflection point that will lead to a freewheeling dynamic the day after for both the left and right.

Trump 2.5

Coming up this week

• Trump Likely to Attend Patriot Games | The president is due to travel to Ohio for the finale of the Patriot Games that are marking America’s 250^th anniversary without fanfare.

• AI Framework Facing Scrutiny | The White House has unveiled its plans to regulate frontier models in private, prompting criticism from both corporate players and the wider public.

• Fraud Ledger in Focus for VP | JD Vance is making fraud the central focus of his political agenda and is growing the profile of investigations ahead of the midterms.

• New Russia Sanctions in Play | The Senate passed a bill to enhance economic restrictions on Russia, which will now go to the House for approval.

• Iran War Simmers on Backburner | The conflict continues to wreak economic havoc and could restart in full in the future, with no comprehensive deal imminent.

You may have missed

• Michigan Senate Race Heats Up | With the conclusion of the primaries, the race heats up between Rogers and El Sayed.

• Blanche Confirmed as AG | The personal lawyer of the president is now the Attorney General of the United States.

• Netanyahu Rejects Hamas Deal | The Israeli Prime Minister has formally indicated he will not accept the already agreed-upon terms of disarmament with Hamas.

• New White House Counsel Named | Will Scharf is the new top lawyer at the White House.

• Colombia Gets Billion-Dollar Deal | The right-leaning government in Colombia has been rewarded with a financial lifeline by the Trump administration.

Readings & Viewings

Snapshots from around the media from the past week.

• TCN | Tucker Interview with Hunter Biden

• Fox News | “JD Vance gives update on Iran.”

• FB | “Zuckerberg: The Future is for Everyone.”

“The Trump administration has signaled that it wants to be a leader in AI. It sees AI as a national security asset, similar to energy and critical minerals. The Trump administration also sees AI as part of a modernized American economy in the years to come. The one guiding objective is to ensure American AI dominance.”

- p. 84 “Principles & Policies” | Trump 2.5: A Primer (2025)

What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

The battle for the future of the GOP is bubbling to the surface, and with the Iran War continuing to draw the president’s attention, his grip on the party is loosening.

Establishment senators are coalescing on one side, and on the other, ‘podcaster populists’ led by Tucker Carlson are developing a new consensus.

Trump 2.5

Coming up this week

• Iran War on Repeat | In an expected pattern, the president followed up his bellicose rhetoric with an entreaty for continued negotiations with Iran this week.

• Michigan Primary Takes Center Stage | The Democratic Senate race spotlights the party’s position on Gaza on Tuesday.

• Blanche Nomination Picking up Momentum | With a deal on the IRS relief fund for the president and family, two holdout senators said they would support the acting AG’s confirmation.

• Congress Attempts Funding Workaround | The Senate passed a potential funding bill to keep the government open through the end of the year.

• Farm Bill Gaining Supporters | The comprehensive agriculture legislation is drawing industry groups to Washington to shape the final text.

You may have missed

• Hamas Agrees to Disarmament Terms | The militant group agreed to give up its arms in Gaza in a phased plan, although Israel has expressed skepticism.

• Trump Social API Raises Alarms | An application-layer service to provide faster access to the president’s posts is seen as enabling insider trading.

• FIFA Privatization Plans Shelved | The FIFA president’s plan to create a fund benefitting from the World Cup, led in part by Jared Kushner, has been canceled following massive opposition.

• Lincoln Memorial Charges Withdrawn | US Attorney Pirro asked to dismiss the case against an individual accused of vandalizing the reflecting pool.

• Bessent Backs the Yen | The Treasury Secretary prominently indicated that the United States will buy the Japanese currency.

Readings & Viewings

Snapshots from around the media from the past week.

• France24 | “40,000 migrants swim from Morocco into Spain”

• CNN | Dana Bash Interview with RJK Jr

• X | Post from MTJ

“Since 2026 is an election year, there is a narrow window to demonstrate progress. While the executive branch can drive the agenda, meaningful changes require alignment with Congress, and this is likely to be a continuing challenge.”

- p. 7 “Up Front” | Trump 2.5: A Primer (2025)

What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

As political leaders gather in Washington this week for Senator Lindsay Graham’s funeral, President Trump will need to decide if his legacy is a renewal of the old GOP or a revival of the populist platform he campaigned on.

The Iran War continues to cast a long shadow over both the domestic and foreign policy agendas of the White House, with nearly every issue filtered through that prism.

Trump 2.5

Coming up this week

• Graham Memorial Service to Draw Dignataries | The president will make special remarks as a range of foreign leaders descend on the nation’s capital for the funeral of the late senator.

• Iran War in Lull as Netanyahu Visits Washington | All eyes are on the Israeli Prime Minister’s attempt to shape the contours of the conflict and stalled negotiations.

• Saudi Nuclear Agreement Remains Uncertain | The deal has raised controversy on the Hill as lawmakers express guarded criticism of the yet-to-be-finalized terms.

• Key Federal Nominations In Queue | Jay Clayton is expected to be confirmed as intelligence director, as Todd Blanche’s nomination for attorney general faces additional scrutiny.

• AI Policy in Seminal Moment | The White House had set an August 1 deadline to create a new framework to manage key AI models, leading to a frenetic week of top technology leaders lobbying officials.

You may have missed

• White House Resets Tariffs Baseline | New tariffs were announced for Canada as well as 60 trading partners, under a new long-term framework for the measures.

• President Trump Launches Election Integrity Push | In a major speech, the president outlined attempts by China to interfere in the 2020 U.S. elections.

• Chinese Official Attends Pentagon Meeting | Undersecretary of War Elbridge Colby hosted a high-level Chinese delegation at the Pentagon ahead of a trip later this year by President Xi.

• Lebanese President Makes Landmark Visit | President Aoun cemented ties with the United States in the context of his country’s negotiations with Israel facilitated by the Trump administration.

• Medicaid Fraud Claims Lead to Funding Block | The federal government is withholding $1 billion in payments to California and Minnesota in a move being labeled partisan politics.

Readings & Viewings

Snapshots from around the media from the past week.

• “The Reading Room” | Rand Paul Releases Fauci Diary

• Laura Loomer | Interview with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy

• FIFA | World Cup Final Highlights

“The Trump administration will endeavor to minimize and contain Chinese influence in geostrategic regions like the Gulf, African countries with critical supply chains, and Greenland, where there are critical supply chains for tomorrow.”

- p. 63 “Principles & Policies” | Trump 2.5: A Primer (2025)

What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

The euphoria from the July 4 weekend was short-lived as the Iran ceasefire is all but gone, shifting geopolitics back into the spotlight.

The administration is …

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What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

With America basking in a celebratory glow amid the 250^th anniversary and the World Cup festivities, the White House has had a brief reprieve that may continue i…

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What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

America’s 250^th anniversary was meant to be a crowning moment for the president, but his coalition is fractured, domestic progress has been intermittent, and geo…

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What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

The president will look to generate momentum for the domestic agenda over the summer while raising the temperature in Congress, as seen with the delayed DNI appo…

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What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

A provisional deal with Iran has bought the administration time to celebrate the World Cup and America’s 250^th without the shadow of war hanging overhead

The seco…

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What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

While turmoil in the Middle East continues in the background, the president is immersed in spectacle this week, first at the Knicks game on Monday and then at th…

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What’s ahead on the Trump 2.5 Agenda?

There is a lack of excitement on both sides of the aisle for America’s 250^th anniversary, showing overall fatigue with the Trump administration.

While still pushi…

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Note that this is an open preview, and the archive will be available for paid subscribers.

Category: Domestic Policy (Last Updated May 25, 2026)

In the first year of the administration, the government pivoted from establishing a sovereign wealth fund to enabling different parts of the government to take direct equity stakes, with the Development Finance Corporation (DFC) in the lead.

The Starting Point

The initial focus of the White House, as emphasized during the campaign, was exploring the establishment of a sovereign wealth fund. On February 3, 2025, Executive Order 14196 was signed to support that initiative.

Excerpt #1: P. 70 | Chapter III: “Principles and Policies”

“In creating a sovereign wealth fund, the Trump administration will seek to partner with the largest sovereign wealth funds in the Gulf to bring investment into America. There will be a steady stream of private sector engagement, just as in the first term.”

Excerpt #2: p. 72 | Chapter III: “Principles and Policies”

The Current Read

Establishing a sovereign wealth fund and consolidating existing assets has proven to be a tall order that would require complex legislation. Instead of that pursuit, the Trump administration has enabled multiple government agencies and departments to build a portfolio of holdings through a range of instruments, including direct equity ownership.

The Development Finance Corporation, through the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) passed late last year, now has a revolving $5 billion equity account at the US Department of the Treasury. In addition, it is permitted to have up to $200 billion of total holdings, with up to $70 billion in equity. In that sense, DFC is taking on the standing of a sovereign fund. Its remit has also expanded beyond developing markets to include U.S. allies.

The focus of the DFC, as well as the government's overall holdings, is on critical technology sectors and upstream requirements, such as critical minerals. The US Treasury, the Department of Commerce, and the Department of War (DoW) are also active on this front. While the Intel announcement, in which the US government acquired a stake in the company, took prominence, subsequent deals in quantum computing and critical minerals have shown this is a pattern. In these types of agreements, Commerce and the DoW seem to be more active than DFC.

The sprawl of activity and holdings may require consolidation, at which point an SWF may come back into the spotlight. For now, tracking the hydra of holdings requires careful attention.

People shaping the policy*

• Benjamin Black, CEO DFC

• Howard Lutnick, Secretary of Commerce

• Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary

• Steve Feinberg, Deputy Secretary of War

• Jacob Helberg, Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth

*Further background for individuals available in Trump 2.5

Notable milestones

• SWF Executive Order – February 3, 2025

• Intel Stake Acquired – August 22, 2025

• Korea Zinc Deal Announced – December 14, 2025

• NDAA 2026 Passed – December 18, 2025

• Quantum Computing Grants – May 21, 2026

Additional Resources

• Executive Order 14196

• DFC Modernization Act of 2025

• Intel Warrant and Stock Agreement

• Council on Foreign Relations | Washington’s Growing Portfolio: Tracking U.S. Government Investments

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Without clear resolution across nearly every foreign policy file that has been opened, notably Iran, the White House will remain rudderless.

As the president head…

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Note that this is an open preview, and future posts will be available for paid subscribers.

Category: Foreign Policy (Last Updated May 10, 2026)

The administration is pursuing American dominance in the Western Hemisphere and the removal of influence by other major global powers in adversarial states and allies alike.

The Starting Point

At the outset of the administration, it was immediately clear that the focus was on prioritizing not just America-friendly governments but also Trump-friendly leaders. The first-order concern – borders and immigration – was achieved relatively quickly within three months. This opened the door to pursuing the overall objective of hegemony early on in the administration.

Excerpt #1: P. 66 | Chapter III: Principles and Policies

“As the U.S. in the Trump 2.5 era seeks Western hegemonic dominance, it will not accept Chinese influence in Cuba and Venezuela. In Cuba’s case, given its proximity to the U.S. border, there may even be hints at regime change through economic pressure.”

Excerpt #2: p. 67 | Chapter III: “Principles and Policies”

The Current Read

The White House formalized its policy in the Western hemisphere within two key documents: National Security Strategy and the National Defense Strategy.

The approach is characterized as an expanded Monroe doctrine, which has also been reframed in the media as the ‘Donroe’ doctrine. At the core is the reinforcement of a zone of exclusion in the Americas, whereby the United States’ writ is paramount, particularly in confronting Chinese (and at times Russian) influence.

There are other overriding concerns that precipitate American action or intervention:

• Interdiction of the drug trade

• Combating illegal migration

• Achieving geostrategic energy dominance

To achieve these aims, there are ongoing attempts at regime alteration, either through the electoral process or outside it. This played out in Honduras (electorally) and Venezuela (militarily) within the first year, for example. Brazil and Colombia will soon be significant tests for the White House’s approach. In fact, every electoral cycle could be a flashpoint.

It is less clear what role the Shield of the Americas, a new body, will evolve into and if it will transition beyond pageantry into substance. The primary interlocutors for the United States in co-leadership are El Salvador, Argentina, and Chile, and to a lesser degree, Ecuador and other Central American countries. Canada and Mexico, while within the Americas, have a broader policy context for the administration as the only two countries bordering the United States.

Finally, as in all other regions, advancing American prosperity and achieving a trade surplus, including through tariffs, is also the policy du jour in the Americas.

People shaping the policy*

• Marco Rubio, Secretary of State

• Pete Hegseth, Secretary of War

• Scott Bessent, Secretary of the Treasury

• Michael Jensen, Senior Director, National Security Council

• Kirsti Noem, Special Envoy, Shield of the Americas

*Further background for individuals available in Trump 2.5

Notable milestones

• Ecuador Election (runoff) – April 13, 2025

• Chile Election – November 16, 2025

• Honduras Election – November 30, 2025

• Venezuela Intervention – January 3, 2026

• Costa Rica Election – February 1, 2026

• Shield of the Americas Summit – March 7, 2026

• Colombia Election – May 31, 2026

• Peru Election (Runoff) – June 7, 2026

• Brazil Election – October 4, 2026

• Argentina Election – October 24, 2027

Additional Resources

• GEOPOLITICO | Victory in Venezuela

• White House | National Security Strategy (November 2025)

• Bloomberg | How Trump’s Venezuela intervention revived the Monroe Doctrine

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